Megaphone politics calming the stock markets? As we also learned during the week from the US central bank’s April meeting statement and the latest employment figures, the Q1 economic deceleration is most likely just as transitory as it has been the previous two years. With unemployment dropping to just 4.4%, much additional economic stimulus from… Read more »
French presidential election: Pollsters win again So, has the reduction of political risk in Europe been sufficient to return stock market’s countenance? Well, no, but we experienced once again that what is foreseeable is already priced in, while what is truly uncertain has the ability to move markets. The gradual downward movement of stock markets… Read more »
Snap – political risks return – or do they? It appeared very opportunistic of Theresa May to call a snap election on June 8, after the latest polls showed the Tory party with the biggest lead ahead of Labour for probably 3 decades. Predictably, most of the media have focused on the short-term potential for… Read more »
Rollercoaster of expectation changes We are hopeful that the substantial improvement in business sentiment over the past 12 months will counterbalance the slight flagging of consumer demand, resulting in still healthy earnings growth. This may be sufficient to underpin current stock market valuation levels in the US and provide further upside dynamic for the lower… Read more »
March and Q1 asset class returns With markets in calmer waters, a number of previous concerns receding and the global economy still making steady progress, it is possible that some of the potential market volatility that we foresaw will not come to the fore. However, there are undeniably also still obstacles and threats that have not… Read more »
