We recently received a number of questions from investors on whether we thought the economic and capital market cycle is coming to an end. Basically, is it time to ‘batten down the hatches’? The UK’s uncertain post Brexit trading position was another source of concern, with some fears going as far as anticipating the reappearance of 1970’s style capital controls. After years of quite pleasing investment returns, there is clearly a growing private investor sentiment of ‘should I take what I have and run before the pain begins in capital markets?’
Iran Sanctions Spill into Oil Market
As widely expected, Donald Trump decided to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal this week. Advice from European allies and even multiple pats on the back from France’s Emmanuel Macron weren’t enough to dissuade the US President from unilaterally exiting an agreement which he called “decaying and rotten”, and “an embarrassment”.
Global Government Bonds: For the US, things have changed
Just over five years ago, on the 2nd May 2013, the yield on 10-year government bonds in the US, France and the UK were all at 1.65%. Three weeks later, after they’d risen to 2%, Ben Bernanke announced that the Federal Reserve would begin the process of ending quantitative easing. The “Taper Tantrum” began and, by the beginning of July, all three were at 2.5%.
It’s time to talk about technicals
Despite the best quarterly earnings season in over 7 years, markets have responded with a seemingly directionless apathetic shrug – neither rewarding beats nor punishing misses.
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